Surava Capital
The Phase 3 data on Moderna's personalised melanoma vaccine arrived earlier than expected. The presentation was scheduled for Saturday, 24 October, at the ESMO Congress in Madrid (ESMO is the European Society for Medical Oncology). But on Thursday, 22 October, around 18:30 Zurich time, the results appeared on the medical news site Oncology Central. They were taken down shortly after, but screenshots spread quickly on X and Reddit.
The selloff therefore started two days earlier than planned, within the same trading session. The stock fell as much as 26% during the day and closed about 17% lower at 202.63 dollars. Without the leak, the market would only have reacted on Monday, 26 October.
The strongest recent floor held. The 209 to 217 dollar zone gave way, but the 183 to 197 dollar zone from our chart analysis caught the fall. During the day the stock briefly dipped to about 180 dollars, yet no close fell below 197 dollars. The lowest close was 198.85 dollars on 26 October, and by 30 October the stock was back at 221.72 dollars. That shows where buyers stepped in this time, not where they will next time.
The leaked figures turned out to be practically identical to the official results. ESMO lifted the embargo (the publication freeze) the same day, and Merck and Moderna confirmed the numbers: a 42% lower risk of the cancer returning or death compared with Keytruda alone, Merck's immunotherapy and today's standard treatment after surgery.
Who was behind the leak is still unclear, and ESMO is investigating. It is an interesting side story, but we won't pursue it further here. The next real test is the quarterly earnings report on 6 November.
Read what we expected before the data